US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%

공개

Screen the entire US equity universe by three hard criteria—trailing 3-year ROE sustained above 15%, positive free cash flow, and reasonable valuation—and surface one stock per day

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 12. 21:25:05

ITW — The 80/20 compounder trading at a 33% discount to its own peer group

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) passes all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 98.1% / 105.2% / 95.0% for FY2023–FY2025 (buyback-compressed equity; ROIC ~29–32%), positive free cash flow every year since at least 2021 ($1.9B–$3.1B annually), and a trailing P/E of 23.62× sitting 33% below the diversified industrial peer-median of 35.25×. The central tension: ITW's 80/20 Front-to-Back simplification strategy has expanded operating margins from 24.1% to 26.3% on flat revenue, yet the stock has returned just 3.1% over 12 months versus the S&P's 24.3%. A 50+ year Dividend King with S&P A+ / Moody's A1 (positive outlook) credit, offering a 6.27% combined FCF + dividend yield. Q2 2026 earnings expected ~July 29.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 12. 16:08:52

ADP — Payroll's durable king, repriced at a four-year low

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 101.33% / 93.14% / 76.00% for FY2023–FY2025 (buyback-compressed equity; ROIC 6.4–8.6%), $5.3B in trailing free cash flow (5.87% yield), and a trailing P/E of 21.07× sitting 23.5% below its 5-year average of 27.53×. The stock is down 28% over 12 months — the smallest decline in a peer group where Intuit fell 64% and Workday 48% — while EPS grew from $9.98 to $10.72. Float income on $48.3B in client funds drives a third high-margin revenue stream sensitive to Fed rate policy. 51 consecutive years of dividend growth. Q4 FY2026 full-year earnings on July 29, 2026 are the next verification event.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 11. 21:27:07

QCOM — The cheapest chip stock on every multiple, carrying a $7B time bomb

Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) clears all three hard screening criteria: GAAP ROE of 37.07% / 42.25% / 23.34% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC XBRL verified), $12.5B in trailing free cash flow (6.20% yield), and a trailing P/E of 20.89× sitting within 8% of its own 5-year average. The TTM ROE of −1.79% on commercial platforms is a non-cash accounting artifact — a $5.7B deferred tax valuation allowance recorded in Q4 FY2025 that was fully reversed in Q2 FY2026. QCOM trades at a 66% discount to semiconductor peer-median P/E with the highest FCF yield in the peer group, but faces a confirmed $7–8B annual revenue loss when Apple's C2 modem replaces Qualcomm chips starting September 2026. Full bull/bear framework, all three screening criteria verified year-by-year, and near-term catalysts included.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 11. 16:18:26

NVDA — The AI tax collector, hiding in plain sight as a value stock

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) passes all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 17.93% / ~69% / ~120%+ for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified), $119B in trailing free cash flow, and a trailing P/E of 30.69× that sits 50% below NVIDIA's own 5-year historical average. The central tension: the market has priced NVDA as a cyclical infrastructure build at peak, but the data-center revenue run-rate and CUDA ecosystem lock-in suggest the "AI tax collector" franchise is structurally repricing what the multiple should be. Full bull/bear framework included.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 10. 21:25:40

LULU — priced for collapse, built like a compounder

lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 29–42% in FY2023–FY2025, $1.28B in trailing free cash flow (9.29% yield), and a trailing P/E of 9.79× that sits 71% below its own five-year average and 54% below the peer-group median. The stock is at an eight-year low after a Q1 FY2026 guidance cut and downgrade cascade; Michael Burry has 26% of his portfolio in this thesis. Full bull/bear framework included.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 09. 21:44:01

Accenture (ACN) — fortress fundamentals at a 5-year valuation trough

Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) clears all three hard screening criteria definitively — ROE of 26.72%/26.77%/24.29% in FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified), free cash flow accelerating to $12.5B TTM, and a trailing P/E of 14.30× that is 51% below its 5-year historical average and at the peer-group median. The central tension is a genuine bull/bear split on AI disruption: the market has re-rated the entire IT services sector lower on fears that AI will cannibalize Accenture’s consulting and BPO revenue, but the company’s own GenAI bookings are running at $2.2B per quarter (+76% year-over-year) and the balance sheet is an AA−-rated fortress with net cash and 43× interest coverage. Q3 FY2026 earnings on June 18, 2026 are the next material data point.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 08. 22:22:23

Nike (NKE) — brand in freefall, but passing all three screens at a 12-year low

Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 34.63% / 40.09% / 23.29% across FY2023–FY2025 (each above the 15% threshold), positive free cash flow in every measured year, and a trailing P/E of 28.34× that is 9% below Nike's own 5-year average. The central tension is that these passing grades are lagging indicators: FCF has collapsed 84% from its FY2024 peak to $1.05B TTM, operating margin has roughly halved, revenue fell 10% in FY2025 with further declines expected in Q4 FY2026, and both S&P and Moody's have downgraded the company's debt. CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround strategy shows early signs in running (+20% Q1 FY2026) and wholesale recovery, but the revenue inflection date has slipped to Q3 FY2027. Q4 FY2026 earnings on June 30, 2026 are the next major verification event.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 07. 21:32:27

Amgen (AMGN) — $57B in debt, falling FCF, and a GLP-1 moonshot

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) passes all three hard screening criteria — GAAP ROE of 21–22% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR verified), positive FCF in every measured year, and a trailing P/E of 24.33× that sits 5% below Amgen's own 5-year average. The central tension: a $57.3 billion debt load from the 2023 Horizon Therapeutics acquisition is compressing FCF as biosimilar erosion accelerates on Prolia/XGEVA and ENBREL — while the obesity drug MariTide represents a genuine pipeline option. Closes with a structured bull/bear framework.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 06. 21:28:57

Adobe (ADBE) — 40% cheaper than a year ago, but earnings keep growing

Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 37.9% / 38.8% / 39.0% for FY2023–FY2025 (each year well above the 15% threshold), TTM FCF of $10.3 billion (FCF yield ~10.2%), and a trailing P/E of 14.65× — 64% below Adobe's own 5-year average and 50% below enterprise software peer median. The article covers all nine required areas and closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on the June 11 Q2 FY2026 earnings report.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 05. 21:44:11

Alphabet (GOOGL) — accelerating revenue, a 63%-growth cloud, and two live DOJ cases

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) passes all three hard screening criteria with ROE of 27.4% / 32.9% / 35.7% for FY2023–FY2025 (TTM 38.9%), positive FCF of $69.5B / $72.8B / $73.3B across the same three years, and a trailing P/E of 28.40×. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model (four revenue segments with Google Cloud as the fastest-growing major cloud at +63% YoY), ROE table with EDGAR methodology note, FCF bar chart, dual-axis revenue/earnings growth chart, full 8-peer valuation comparison table, balance sheet (D/E 0.20, interest coverage 111.85×, Moody's Aa2 / S&P AA+), six risk factors (DOJ search, DOJ ad tech, EU DMA, AI disruption, CapEx commitment, insider selling), near-term catalysts (Q2 earnings late July, analyst consensus $433 avg PT, Waymo expansion, June 8 ex-div), and competitive moat (search network effects, Android/Chrome lock-in, Cloud vertical stack, 13 products × 1B+ users). Closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on Q2 Cloud growth rate and DOJ search case timeline.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 04. 21:32:06

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — ROE #1 among large US banks, a $50B buyback, and the Dimon question

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of ~17.1% / 18.2% / 19.8% for FY2023–FY2025 (highest in its 8-bank peer group), positive OCF-minus-CapEx FCF of $61.2B / $66.1B / $74.2B, and a trailing P/E of 14.41x — only 5% above the peer median while the ROE lead is 4–9 percentage points. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model (4-segment breakdown: CCB, CIB, AWM, Corporate), ROE table with FY2023 data-source discrepancy disclosed, dual-methodology FCF chart, revenue + earnings growth chart, full 8-bank peer valuation comparison table (P/E, forward P/E, P/B, ROE, dividend yield), bank-appropriate balance sheet analysis using CET1 (13.7% Q1 2026 vs 11.5% minimum), five risk factors (Dimon succession ~$40B 5% impact, $40B+ cumulative regulatory exposure, insider selling pattern, NII rate risk, low short interest), near-term catalysts (Q2 July 14 earnings, 14-year dividend growth streak at $1.50/quarter, $50B buyback, analyst consensus $336–342 target), and competitive moat (scale $4.25T+, 52% vs 61% efficiency ratio vs BAC, #1 IB fees, $17B tech budget). Closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on July 14 NII trajectory and 33.6% P/E premium vs. 5-year average.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 03. 21:44:52

Microsoft (MSFT) — 30% ROE, $71.6B FCF, and a P/E 22% below its own 5-year average

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 35.09% / 32.83% / 29.65% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified, each year well above the 15% threshold); FCF of $59.5B / $74.1B / $71.6B (all positive, FY2025 dip driven entirely by $64.6B AI CapEx); and a trailing P/E of 26.28x — 22.6% below its own 5-year average of 33.96x and roughly at peer median. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model and three-segment breakdown, year-by-year ROE table, FCF chart and trend, valuation metrics with 7-peer comparison table, net income / operating income / margin trends, balance sheet (D/E 11.8%, interest coverage 80.3x, AAA/Aaa/AAA tri-agency rating), five risk factors (FTC antitrust, EU DMA, AI CapEx ROI, cybersecurity, insider activity), near-term catalysts (July 2026 Q4 earnings, M365 price increases effective July 2026, 27% analyst consensus upside), and competitive moat (46.8% operating margin vs. peers, 450M+ M365 seats, Azure share gains vs. AWS). A bull/bear framework closes the article.